• A developing El Niño points to slightly fewer North Atlantic hurricanes in 2026 and a more active Northwest Pacific typhoon season.
•  A quieter Atlantic forecast is easy to misread: one severe storm can still produce very large losses in a calm year, and El Niño shifts where storms track.
• Location Risk Intelligence helps insurers and businesses assess exposure, strengthen resilience, and act before the season builds.

Leading research institutes¹ forecast around 12 or 13 named storms on average, of which roughly 5 or 6 could become hurricanes, including 2 potential major hurricanes with wind speeds above 110 mph (177 km/h). These figures sit only slightly below the 30-year average of 15.6 named storms, 7.6 hurricanes, and 3.5 severe hurricanes. El Niño tends to inhibit hurricane formation in the tropical North Atlantic, which explains the softer outlook.

This is where a quieter forecast can mislead. Predicting the number and intensity of storms that make landfall is extremely difficult, and it is important to bear in mind that just one severe tropical cyclone striking a densely populated region can produce very large losses, even during a relatively calm storm season. In 1992, Hurricane Andrew devastated the state of Florida in the midst of an El Niño event. Inflation-adjusted losses reached around US$ 64bn, nearly two-thirds of which were insured, and Andrew remains one of the ten costliest hurricanes ever to hit the US. A similar storm today would cause far greater damage, as the value of the property in its path has multiplied.

A softer forecasted hurricane season does not mean every region faces less risk. El Niño also shapes where storms go. It tends to make hurricanes turn northward earlier, which could reduce the number of storms entering the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico while elevating the risk of storms making landfall in the southern states of the US East Coast. At the same time, water temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico are currently above average, which could lead to more storms in the early part of the season before El Niño conditions fully develop.

This is where Location Risk Intelligence Region Scoring earns its place. It won't tell you where this season's storms will land, no one can. What it does is show you where your tropical cyclone hazard is structurally high across the US Southeast, down to postcode level, expressed as probabilities rather than predictions, and let you compare today's hazard with forward-looking climate scenarios.

While El Niño dampens the North Atlantic, it favours tropical cyclone formation in the Northwest Pacific. This year's typhoon season is therefore likely to be more active than the long-term average, with forecasters² pointing to activity meaningfully above the 1991–2020 norm.

For a business with global operations, that figure is more than distant weather. Physical hazard concentrated far from headquarters can still arrive as financial risk on the balance sheet, through suppliers, production sites, ports, and counterparties. Picture one severe typhoon striking a manufacturing or logistics hub in Asia during a peak El Niño year: a storm that never touches your offices can still halt your supply chain.

For banks and insurers, the real challenge runs deeper than acknowledging that cyclone risk is shifting. It lies in embedding that knowledge into everyday decisions across portfolios. Location Risk Intelligence lets risk teams screen exposures at scale, compare today's risk with future risk under different climate scenarios, and translate hazards into decision-ready outputs for underwriting, lending, investment, portfolio steering, and reporting.

In practice, this creates clearer prioritisation (where to act first), more consistent communication across internal stakeholders, and a faster path from assessment to action, such as portfolio rebalancing, adjustments to investment planning, and risk-based pricing or limits.