Wildfire study
Wildfires becoming more severe due to climate change
Wildfires becoming more severe due to climate change
© Nick Fitzhardinge / Getty Images
Climate change is a significant factor explaining why destructive wildfires and bushfires are becoming increasingly frequent. This is the conclusion drawn by an international study involving Munich Re, which has been published online by the scientific journal Science
Tobias Grimm
The study reinforces our understanding of how heavily climate change influences weather disasters. More prevention is urgently needed to limit any further increase in damage. This applies not only to wildfires, but to all weather-related natural hazards that are becoming more extreme as a result of climate change.
Tobias Grimm
Chief Climate Scientist
Munich Re

In the study, the authors analysed the damage and number of fatalities caused by wildfires worldwide between 1980 and 2023, and linked the analysis to climatic conditions that favour wildfires. The most important findings:

  • Wildfires causing very serious damage increased significantly from 2015 onwards. 43% of the 200 wildfires resulting in the greatest damage occurred in the last ten years of the observation period. The “Mediterranean biome” (Europe, the southern portion of South America, western US, South Africa, southern Australia) and the “temperate conifer biome” (mostly western North America) have been the hardest hit.
  • The most damaging wildfires were found to be closely linked to increasingly extreme climatic conditions, known as “fire disaster weather,” with high temperatures resulting in vapour pressure deficit and drought.According to the study, the frequency and severity of this “fire disaster weather” increased significantly during the observation period from 1980 to 2023.
  • In summary, the study therefore suggests that climate change is playing a considerable role in the increase in major wildfire disasters, but also discusses important adaptations to managing built and natural environments.
Munich Re contributed part of the loss data (1980–2018) for the study; two other databases (EM-DAT and AON) also provided data. Researchers from the University of Tasmania (Australia) and the University of California (USA) participated in the study, which also involved wildfire expert Markus Steuer from Munich Re as a co-author.

Experts

Markus Steuer
Consultant and wildfire expert, Corporate Underwriting
Tobias Grimm
Tobias Grimm
Chief Climate Scientist

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