Study: Severe hailstorms increasing most rapidly in Europe

New study on hail:

Severe hailstorms increasing most rapidly in Europe

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Published 01/21/2026

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The frequency of severe hailstorms is increasing more rapidly in Europe than anywhere else in the world. Closely linked to climate change, such storms can cause considerable damage. This is a key takeaway from a recent study compiled by researchers from the European Severe Storms Laboratory (ESSL), the Adam Mickiewicz University, Poznań, and Munich Re, published in Nature Geoscience, a science journal¹. The researchers analysed weather data from 1950 to 2023 and insurance losses from 1992 to 2023.

Referred to as very large hail (or VLH), hailstones larger than 5 centimetres can cause considerable damage to buildings, vehicles and infrastructure – and also pose a danger to people. When severe hailstorms strike densely populated areas, losses quickly run into the billions. The study in Nature Geoscience analysed the correlations between weather data, the frequency of VLH, and loss trends. Small hail (< 2 cm) can also cause significant damage, especially in agriculture.

This study is the first comprehensive analysis of global risks, trends and losses with regard to very large hail. Its insights have enabled us to enhance our hail risk model for Europe, which now reflects cutting-edge research. In short, it's a tremendous boon to our specialists in risk assessment and underwriting.

Anja Rädler

Meteorologist, storm expert

A summary of the key findings

During the study period, severe hailstorms occurred most frequently in northern Argentina and in the tri-border region of Uruguay, Paraguay and Brazil. Other hotspots were South Africa and, in the United States, the Great Plains region – particularly Colorado, Kansas and Nebraska. The incidence of VLH was lower on average in Europe, Australia and especially in Asia. Europe’s hail hotspots clustered near mountain ranges, particularly in north-eastern Spain, south-western France and northern Italy.

Mean annual number of VLH events between 1950 and 2023

It is noteworthy that the probability of VLH events in Europe, particularly in northern Italy, rose fastest worldwide during the period under review. The study indicates significant correlations between hail events and global warming associated with climate change. Northern Italy has emerged as a frequent location for severe hailstorms. During a severe convective storm in 2023, a hailstone measuring 19 cm in diameter fell in northern Italy – the largest ever documented in Europe. A series of thunderstorms in that region in July 2023 resulted in record losses of US$ 8.6bn, of which US$ 6.5bn was insured.

Mean trend in annual number of VLH events per decade between 1950 and 2023

In the United States, the hail hazard varied. While no increase was observed in many regions, the risk of very large hailstones rose by around 50% in and near Dallas, Texas, for example.

By contrast, the frequency of VLH decreased significantly in some parts of the southern hemisphere, particularly in South America. The study’s researchers attribute this decline to factors such as lower humidity and greater stability in the middle layers of the atmosphere – which also tends to be influenced by climate change and changing precipitation patterns, including longer droughts.

According to the study, losses caused by severe hail rose in the USA, Australia and Europe. This was largely attributable in Europe to the greater frequency of severe hailstorms and, indirectly, climate change; other factors played pivotal roles in Australia and the United States, including higher exposed values and/or greater vulnerability.

Battaglioli, F., Taszarek, M., Groenemeijer, P. et al. Contrasting trends in very large hail events and related economic losses across the globe.
Nat. Geosci. 19, 52–58 (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-025-01868-0
(The original article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)

Hail is a truly destructive natural hazard. Although hailstorms affect only small areas, large hailstones can cause tremendous damage. If very large hail falls on a conurbation, billions in losses can happen quickly. Studies such as this one are very important in helping us to better understand the risks.

Tobias Grimm

Chief Climate Scientist

Munich Re