Gigantic storms, below-average losses
The images of the destruction caused by Hurricane Melissa in Jamaica are terrible. From a global perspective, though, it was still a year with a low level of losses caused by tropical cyclones. But we mustn't fool ourselves: that was sheer chance. The risk remains and is not becoming any smaller – on the contrary.
Because the storms didn't stop there: Three hurricanes literally exploded into storms of the highest Category 5 with wind speeds of over 251 km/h (156 mph) – the last time there were three or more Category 5 hurricanes was in 2005. Hurricane Melissa, one of the strongest storms of all time, left a trail of devastation in Jamaica. Two other Category 5 hurricanes (Erin, Humberto) fortunately changed course over the sea and raged themselves out over the ocean. That saved lives and billions of dollars. Each of these storms would have caused catastrophic damage in urban areas.
According to preliminary estimates, tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic and Eastern Pacific (hurricanes) and in the Northwest Pacific (typhoons) caused damage totalling US$ 22bn, around US$ 4bn of which was insured. This is a level of loss far below the inflation-adjusted averages for the past ten years (US$ 100/40bn) and past 30 years (US$ 67/26bn). Asia-Pacific accounted for around half of the total losses this year.
The hurricane season in figures:
During the season from June to the end of November, 13 tropical cyclones developed in the North Atlantic, five of which were hurricane force. The proportion of particularly strong storms was unusually high: four of the five hurricanes developed into severe Category 4 and 5 storms with wind speeds of over 208 km/h (129 mph). Three of them were hurricanes of the highest Category 5.
The total number of storms in the North Atlantic thus remained slightly below the long-term average, although the number of severe ("major") storms with particularly high destructive power was higher (1991-2020: 14.4 named storms, including 7.2 hurricanes, 3.2 of which major hurricanes).
Despite high sea-surface temperatures as a driver of strong storms, some meteorological conditions limited storm activity, for example very dry air ("Sahara dust") over the main cyclone formation area west of Africa.
Atmospheric peculiarities also meant that most of the severe storms in the Caribbean turned north-eastwards over the sea and did not move into the extremely warm Gulf of Mexico. One reason: the so-called Azores-Bermuda High was further east over the North Atlantic than usual. In this case, hurricanes are steered earlier in a north-easterly direction across the open North Atlantic. In one case, the particularly strong hurricane Humberto even literally pulled a second storm (Imelda) far out to sea from the US mainland. Scientists call this phenomenon involving two consecutive storms the "Fujiwhara effect".
Hurricane Melissa hit Jamaica late in the season and caused very extensive damage. Melissa had moved stealthily through the Caribbean and gained a great deal of strength and destructive potential from the record-warm ocean. Scientists assume that severe storms such as Melissa are becoming more likely due to climate change.
The typhoon season in figures:
28 tropical cyclones, 17 of which were of typhoon strength, developed in the Northwest Pacific by the end of November. Five became "super typhoons" in Categories 3-5. The number of storms thus remained roughly in line with expectations and the long-term average values (1991-2020: 25/16/9). Only the number of super typhoons was below average.
What was striking about the typhoon season was that many storms travelled relatively far south. As a result, the Philippines, China and Vietnam, as well as neighbouring countries, were frequently affected. In contrast, Japan, which is highly prone to natural disasters, was largely spared tropical storms.
In 2025, altogether 9 typhoons made landfall by the end of November, including 2 super typhoons with particularly high damage potential.
The most destructive storms of the year:
Hurricane Melissa hit the south coast of Jamaica on 28 October with wind speeds of up to 295 km/h at New Hope. Countless buildings were completely destroyed. The storm also caused severe damage in Haiti and Cuba. Some 100 people lost their lives. Thanks to early warnings of the approaching storm, many people were evacuated.
Preliminary estimates put the total loss at just under US$ 10bn. Around US$ 3bn is likely to have been insured, due to the relatively higher insurance density in the tourist and economic centres such as the capital Kingston.
One of the costliest cyclones in Asia was Typhoon Matmo (known as Paolo in the Philippines), which caused severe damage in China, Thailand, Vietnam and the Philippines with extreme rainfall, despite not very strong winds. Some 40 people lost their lives. The total loss is estimated at around US$ 3.5bn. The insured share was low.
Super Typhoon Ragasa (Nando) and Typhoon Bualoi (Opong), which also travelled across several countries in the region, also caused severe storm and flood damage. The total losses exceeded the billion-dollar threshold in each case and insurance cover was low overall. The two most recent typhoons, Kalmaegi (Tino) and Fung-Wong (Uwan) in November, are also expected to have caused losses of a similar magnitude.
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