Stress test for the global economy in 2011/12

2011/08/01

Munich Re’s outlook for the global economy presents a mixed picture. While momentum should continue to be positive as a whole, the growth rate is already starting to decline again and the stress factors are not getting any fewer. But waning pressure from commodity prices could provide some relief on the inflation front.

Munich. Munich Re’s economic experts are expecting the economic recovery to continue in the second half of 2011 and in 2012. However, Munich Re Economic Research predicts that growth will be weaker. Particularly in the industrialised countries, negative factors are now predominant, mainly due to high public debt and the euro crisis. But the economy in emerging markets is not free from dangers either: overheating tendencies and financial market bubbles cannot be ruled out. "The good news is that in 2012 inflation rates should be more moderate again, at least in the industrial nations", says Dr. Michael Menhart, Head of Munich Re Economic Research. "However, overheating tendencies in price development are still evident in the emerging markets and the tightening of monetary policy could come too late."

Munich Re clients can access the full Economic Outlook with details of the macroeconomic parameters for 2011/2012 exclusively on our client portal connect.munichre.

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