Europe provides some of the most striking case studies. Major floods struck in 2002, 2013 and 2021 – each in different river catchments, yet all with intensities assessed at return periods of 100 years or more. In the Ahr Valley, gauges during the 2021 disaster even registered levels consistent with 500-year events. 

While these were distinct regional events rather than statistical clustering, the overall picture is unmistakable: extreme floods are appearing more frequently across Europe within just two decades, putting into question the reliability of historic benchmarks.

The pattern is global. In 2024, natural catastrophes generated US$320 billion in overall losses, with US$140 billion insured. Each of 43 separate events exceeded US$1 billion. In the context of risk, what once seemed like outliers are becoming defining features.

Yet many organisations still benchmark risk against historic recurrence intervals. On paper, that may look prudent; in practice it creates three blind spots.

• Capital gets allocated to zones wrongly labelled “low risk.”
• Insurance pricing and cover limits fail to match today’s hazard intensities.
• Disclosures fall short of what regulators and investors now expect under CSRD, TCFD or ISSB.

In short: by relying on outdated odds, portfolios are mispositioned for the future.

That expertise is operationalised in Location Risk Intelligence. Rather than treating “1-in-100” as a static label, Location Risk Intelligence shows what those odds mean today. Critically, it reveals how risks are likely to evolve under different climate futures. Users can screen single assets or entire portfolios for return-period intensities such as flood depths. They can also evaluate defended versus undefended scenarios or map high-risk sections along transport or energy corridors.

Beyond helping businesses to understand exposure, Location Risk Intelligence helps them to quantify it. With the Climate Change Edition, organisations can model risks out to 2100. With the Climate Financial Impact Edition, they can see the expected annual loss or 1-in-100-year damage in financial terms. With portfolio aggregation and comparison tools, they can detect concentrations and systemic hotspots before these crystallise into losses.

Climate change is rewriting the probability tables faster than markets can adapt. The 1-in-100-year sticker no longer provides the consolation it once did.

At Risk Management Partners, we believe resilience begins with data integrity. By combining Munich Re’s unparalleled loss intelligence with the decision-ready analytics of Location Risk Intelligence, firms replace outdated recurrence intervals with evidence. Companies are able to leverage scenario-aware probabilities and quantified financial impacts. With that shift, portfolio managers stop betting on old odds and start managing today’s realities.