Summary

• Natural disasters cost the world US$ 112bn in the first half of 2026, slightly below the ten-year average
• Record-breaking heatwaves in North America and Europe, virtually impossible without climate change, put people at risk and slowed economies
• Current El Niño conditions are expected to reach record strength in H2, raising the odds of extreme weather in many regions

A half-year natural disaster loss report provides a financial summary, but the challenge is figuring out what the numbers mean for the assets you hold. Below, we take three findings from Munich Re's H1 2026 review and follow each one with a forward-looking assumption to help you steer toward lower risk in your book.

Losses came in slightly below average. Does that mean the risk is getting smaller?

No, and a quiet stretch is exactly when that mistaken assumption could get costly. The lower total of US$ 112bn owes a lot to luck. Severe US thunderstorms, typically one of the biggest loss drivers, caused less damage than the accompanying tornado and hail activity had pointed to.

As the first half of the year closed, fires were already spreading across parts of southern Europe, while Canada battled major blazes of its own. Wildfire is a prime example of the forces that cascade into catastrophe: hotter, drier spells pile up fuel, and a single spark can turn a quiet season into a record one. The message is clear: preparation remains key.

Heat is causing thousands of deaths, but only few claims are filed. So how does it touch a portfolio?

Heat rarely breaks buildings, so the big consequences are elsewhere. Its real costs show up as lost work hours, stalled production, and strained infrastructure such as cooling systems. That makes heat a physical risk that property-oriented financial models might overlook.

Attribution studies link heatwave intensity to warming more directly than any other hazard, which made the heatwaves in Europe and North America the clearest climate signal of the half year, though it is less visible in property-loss data. One OECD study found that ten extra days above 35°C cut annual labour productivity by about 0.3% across the economy, comparable to the drag from a 5% rise in energy prices.

A Super El Niño is forecast for H2. Is the first half of the year a fair preview?

Current El Niño conditions are expected to reach record strength through H2, pushing temperatures higher and rearranging the weather map in many regions. Model projections point to more drought and wildfire in some regions, more flooding in others, and stronger typhoon activity across the Northwest Pacific. So, less destruction in the first half of the year is a poor guide to what might come next. View H2 through the events El Niño is loading and rerun your forward scenarios while you still have a head start.

Conclusion

One question remains: How can you put the half-year report's findings into action? With Location Risk Intelligence by Risk Management Partners, a unit of Munich Re, you can score your exposure location by location, assess the risks under different climate scenarios, put a figure on the potential hit to earnings, and uncover nature risk, too. In that way, the half-year takeaways become the path to informed decisions ahead.