This year’s hurricane season could once again be exceptionally active. For the third consecutive year, the main phase of the stormy season in late summer will likely be characterised by climatic conditions that are favourable for storm formation over the North Atlantic. The last such string of years with these La Niña conditions was in 1998-2000.

Based on an analysis of current climatic conditions and estimates from leading research institutes, Munich Re expects as many as 18 named cyclones in the tropical North Atlantic in the course of the 2022 season. Of those 18, roughly eight could be hurricanes, including possibly four major hurricanes with wind speeds exceeding 110 mph (177 km/h). These numbers are largely in line with the forecasts released by leading research institutes and lie well above the long-term average for the years 1950 to 2021 (12.2 named storms, including 6.4 hurricanes and 2.7 severe hurricanes). The hurricane season officially begins on 1 June and continues until the end of November.

Storm activity is chiefly influenced by two factors:

• Firstly, by the sea surface temperature in the tropical North Atlantic. According to the latest forecasts, this year the temperature will be average or higher, which favours storm development.
• Secondly: by the naturally occurring ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) climate oscillation in the Pacific. Under La Niña conditions, there are normally weaker easterly winds in the upper atmosphere over the tropical North Atlantic and the Caribbean. The lessening of wind shear facilitates the formation of tropical cyclones. In contrast, storm activity tends to be subdued during El Niño phases. Forecasting centres find it unlikely that we will see a switch from the current La Niña conditions to a storm-dampening El Niño phase. In fact, just the opposite seems more likely.
• Climate change is affecting more than just water temperatures. The research to date indicates that, while climate change does not tend to cause more tropical cyclones, it does cause more frequent severe hurricanes with destructive winds and storms with rainfall extremes.

“Three consecutive years of ENSO conditions, which favour tropical cyclones, is truly unusual. Needless to say, for insurers it is tremendously important to determine whether this was just a fluke or may become more common in future. In any case, whether and, if so, how climate change affects the ENSO phases like El Niño and La Niña is the subject of intensive research,” says Anja Rädler, a meteorologist and climate researcher at Munich Re.

No one can say how many hurricanes will make landfall this year, or where. Consequently, the resulting damages and losses from destructive winds and floodings caused by storm surge and rain cannot be predicted. When severe hurricanes strike the coasts of the US, they often produce losses amounting to several billion dollars. Accordingly, in order to minimise damages and protect human life, prevention in the form of robust buildings and optimal early-warning systems is particularly important.

For comparison: in 2021 there were 21 tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic, including seven hurricanes and four major hurricanes rated category 3 to 5. The costliest tropical cyclone of the year was Hurricane Ida, which produced overall losses of US$ 65bn, of which US$ 36bn was insured. The previous year included a record-breaking hurricane season, with no less than 30 storms.

The ENSO conditions are also likely to influence the typhoon season in the Northwest Pacific, albeit with roughly the opposite effect. Consequently, Munich Re anticipates a level of storm activity that is slightly below the long-term average in the Northwest Pacific. From 1965 to 2021, the region was visited by an average of 25.9 tropical cyclones per year, including 16.2 typhoons and 8.8 especially powerful typhoons of categories 3 to 5.

Although Japan is normally home to the highest typhoon-related losses, we observe a trend towards increasing insured losses in China and India.