Climate Week NYC 2025 will once again transform the city into a global stage. From 21 to 28 September, leaders from business, politics and innovation will gather across the five boroughs to discuss the energy transition and the future of resilience. Munich Re and Risk Management Partners will also be there to share insights, listen, and network with you.

However, the city is not only hosting the discussions, it is also part of them. New York is no stranger to climate change. Subway tunnels flooded after torrential rains, roads closed in extreme heat, a sky turned orange by smoke from distant wildfires – these are no longer isolated incidents. So:

New York's hazard profile shows that the city is as exposed as it is iconic. The tornado risk is high. In other words, while extreme wind events may not make headlines every day, they cannot be ignored. For insurers, this raises questions about business interruption losses and commercial property coverage. For companies with data centres or logistics centres, the resilience of critical infrastructure is being put to the test.

The risk of flash flooding is medium to high, but in practice it feels severe. A single cloudburst can paralyse subway lines, strand employees, and bring retail to a standstill. For banks and insurers, this means business interruptions and a higher frequency of claims.

Even hail reaches a medium risk. In a city characterised by glass facades and dense development, the damage caused by a single severe storm can quickly escalate. For businesses, this means higher repair costs and potential reputational risks if operations are disrupted. For insurers, this poses a challenge to their pricing models, which are traditionally geared towards hail zones in the Midwest rather than Manhattan.

The stresses of today's climate show how close to its limits New York is already operating. The stress from heat and humidity is rated as high. For businesses, this means productivity losses, health risks for outdoor workers, and higher cooling costs for office and retail space.

Cold stress exposure is high. This is a reminder that infrastructure is under severe strain at both extremes. Severe cold events increase energy demand and drive up costs for businesses and households. For insurers, frozen pipes and power outages are recurring causes of damage.

Precipitation stress is high. This is perhaps the most direct signal: heavy rainfall is already overwhelming drainage systems. For real estate, this means that the value of assets in flood-prone areas could decline faster than expected. For banks, loan-to-value ratios could be distorted as properties become less resilient. For insurers, repeated flood damage could mean risk-adequate pricing pushes premiums out of reach for tenants.

Scenario modelling illustrates how today's figures feed into tomorrow's developments.

In the most sustainable scenario (SSP1–RCP2.6), New York will warm by 1.6 °C to 1.8 °C by 2100. While this will continue to increase the risk of heat and flooding, it will remain within a range where adaptation measures – green infrastructure, coastal protection, and building renovations – could keep portfolios resilient. Banks and insurance companies can plan with greater certainty, while real estate retains its long-term value.

In the medium scenario (SSP2–RCP4.5), warming of 2.4°C to 2.7 °C calls adaptation assumptions into question. Flood defences will be tested almost constantly, and insurance companies may need to rethink their underwriting criteria. For businesses, operating costs will rise due to higher cooling costs, investments in resilience, and increasing insurance premiums. For investors, asset selection will become a game of finding the few resilient areas amid broader exposure.

In the next-level scenario (SSP3–RCP7.0), a 3.6 °C warming puts New York in a high-risk zone. Faced with ever-increasing premiums, neighbourhoods could remain uninsured, real estate portfolios could lose liquidity, and banks could face higher default risks on loans for devalued properties. Companies could face chronic disruptions to supply chains and the safety of their workforce, forcing them to relocate or make extensive adaptation investments.

The most extreme scenario (SSP5–RCP8.5), with warming of 4.3 to 4.4 °C, raises existential questions. Infrastructure would be chronically overwhelmed, systemic shocks affect financial markets, and entire neighbourhoods may have to be abandoned. For insurers, this scenario means risk-adequate premiums become prohibitively expensive. For banks, stranded assets and defaults dominate. For businesses, continuity planning becomes survival planning.

So, does New York pass the climate risk test? The answer is not clear-cut. The city is both resilient and fragile, globally central yet locally vulnerable. The hazard assessments here show a snapshot of risk and point to a series of decisions that financial institutions, insurers, businesses, and real estate players will have to face sooner or later.

For banks, it's about credit risk and portfolio exposure. For insurers, it's about pricing, claims, and the future of insurability. For businesses, it's about business continuity and supply chain resilience. And for real estate, it's about preserving value in a city where location has always been key, but may no longer offer security.