Mortality Impact of What-If Recreational Marijuana Use Scenarios

^{March 2020}

The marijuana use landscape is changing rapidly across North America. Canada became the first major nation to legalize cannabis in 2018.¹ As of year-end 2019, eleven states in the U.S. approved marijuana for recreational use – while only three states completely prohibit the use of medicinal marijuana. Increasing social acceptance with legalization over the past few years has resulted in an upward trend in marijuana use in the U.S. general population and, by extension, in the life insurance buying population. This increase in marijuana use may also be explained by a decrease in the overall stigma of use, prompting more honest answers. In the U.S., 34.8% of people between age 18 to 25 used marijuana in 2018 as well as 13.3% of people older than 25.² Given the increasing trend and growing concerns about excess mortality of heavy users, it is critical for life insurers to effectively assess the risk associated with marijuana use on their blocks of business.

Munich Re’s North American Biometrics team performed a sensitivity analysis to estimate the mortality impact of extreme what-if marijuana use scenarios on its in force block and new business in the U.S.

Relative Mortality Risk of Standalone Marijuana Use

Relative Risk (RR) assumptions based on internal research and Munich Re Medical Director feedback were set as follows:  

The “heavy”^** users listed in Table 1 are most likely to be those who test THC positive in insurance lab testing. The RR estimates in Table 1 are chosen keeping in mind how debits solely for marijuana use would most likely be applied in a production underwriting environment. Additionally, these RR estimates assume recreational marijuana users. Medical marijuana, which has an additional level of complexity depending on the underlying impairment(s), is not in the scope of this exercise. Future updates can be based on a more  granular RR structure – such as age or gender breakdowns – as more experience becomes available.