Lower losses, growing risks: the natural disaster review for the first half of 2026

In North America, natural disasters had caused total losses of around US$ 47bn by June, US$ 34bn of which were insured. Both were below the average for the past ten years.

The costliest natural disaster in North America in the first half of the year was a large severe thunderstorm outbreak triggered by a strong frontal system over the central United States. The April event swept across several states in the Midwestern US, reaching as far south as Texas. Around 100 tornadoes were recorded, including a destructive EF4 tornado – the second-highest category – with wind speeds of up to 290 km/h (180 mph). The losses amounted to US$ 5.8bn, around US$ 4.1bn of which were insured. 

Three winter storms, bringing heavy snowfall and frost between January and March, were also among the costliest natural disasters of the first half of the year. In total, their losses amounted to nearly US$ 11bn, of which around US$ 7.7bn were insured. A storm at the end of January was particularly severe. Initially coming from the Pacific, it brought huge amounts of snow, frost and icy conditions to large parts of the US and Canada, stretching across most of the eastern half of the continent. Arctic air masses can push far to the south over North America, as there are no east-west mountain ranges to block the cold, dense air mass.

As of the end of June, this year’s hurricane season in the North Atlantic had – apart from one weak tropical cyclone  (Arthur) – been quiet, as is typical during El Niño phases. However, powerful hurricanes can occur even under El Niño conditions. Hurricane Andrew from 1992 is one example. It devastated south Florida, prompting the insurance sector to rethink the nature and frequency of particularly severe storms due to the unexpectedly high losses. The inflation-adjusted damage caused by Hurricane Andrew still ranks among the 10 tropical cyclones with the highest losses on record, despite occurring during an El Nino year. 

Additionally, in the southern United States, El Niño typically increases the likelihood of above-average rainfall, raising the risk of flash floods and river flooding.

Apart from heatwaves, severe winter storms caused extensive damage across Europe. In just over a month, nine storms affected Portugal and Spain at the start of the year, including Kristin, the most devastating of them all, in late January. Unusually severe for the Iberian Peninsula, Kristin swept across the region with wind speeds of up to 170 km/h and heavy precipitation, causing extensive losses amounting to around US$ 7.7bn, of which around US$ 1.8bn were insured. By the end of the first half of the year, the losses in Portugal had already exceeded the highest total annual and insured losses recorded in the country since 1980, the period covered by Munich Re’s  NatCatSERVICE database. 

Overall, the nine winter storms accounted for around 80% of total losses and 70% of insured losses in Europe from all natural disasters in the first half of the year. The total natural disaster losses of around US$ 22bn and insured losses of just over US$ 7bn exceeded the average figures for the past ten years (US$ 18bn/US$ 6.6bn, adjusted for inflation).

In the Asia-Pacific region, losses remained significantly lower than in previous years. Total losses amounted to around US$ 8.7bn (10-year average, adjusted for inflation: US$ 32bn), of which just over US$ 1bn (US$ 5bn) were insured. 

Throughout May, persistent rainfall in central and southern China led to severe flooding. A rain band hundreds of kilometres wide brought heavy precipitation to numerous provinces, with some areas receiving up to 400 mm of rain per square metre. According to media reports, more than 100 rivers burst their banks. City centres were flooded and vehicles were swept away. An estimated 45 people lost their lives. Heavy rainfall is common in China during the East Asian summer monsoon, but this year it began earlier than usual. Initial estimates put the nationwide losses from the May floods at approximately US$ 2.8bn, only a fraction of which were insured.

Severe bushfires broke out in southeast Australia, producing total losses of almost US$ 1bn, two-thirds of which were insured. Australia is also heavily impacted by heatwaves, the direct losses from which are difficult to quantify. In its latest “Australia’s National Climate Risk Assessment”, the Australian Climate Service, citing a study published as far back as 2018, estimated that heatwaves are already reducing labour productivity by up to around 0.5%, which translates to billions in losses for its economy.

In India, the monsoon rains that are vital for much of the country's agriculture arrived later than usual and remained significantly weaker than normal. At the same time, strengthening El Niño conditions heightened the risk of drought-related impacts. 

And the second half of the year holds significant risks for the region. In Australia and parts of Southeast Asia, El Niño often increases the risk of heatwaves, droughts and wildfires. At the same time, El Niño can enhance rainfall and flood risk in other parts of Asia, particularly where altered monsoon patterns or typhoon activity lead to excessive precipitation.

Moreover, El Niño tends to shift the areas where typhoons in the Northwest Pacific form toward the east. With more time over warm ocean waters, typhoons can intensify and persist longer, increasing the likelihood of severe storms. Their tracks also tend to shift northward, placing Japan, Korea and Greater China at greater risk.

In Africa, natural disasters caused losses amounting to around US$ 2bn. Only a fraction of these losses were insured. The largest damage was caused by storms and flooding in South Africa in May, with overall losses amounting to more than US$ 0.5bn. The loss numbers once again highlighted the continent’s protection gap: while exposure is rising, insurance coverage remains limited, leaving governments, businesses and households to absorb most of the financial impact on their own, which also slows recovery efforts.