Nanotechnology - The future of one-billionths

"Science fiction was yesterday", one might think, on hearing the predictions of nanoscientists. The technology of the elements opens up completely new avenues for many industries. Yet today we can only guess at where they may take us.

The discovery of the atom

"By convention sweet, by convention bitter, by convention hot, by convention cold, by convention colour: but in reality atoms and void."
Democritus, 5 BC.

The Greek philosopher Democritus could only speculate back then — today we know. In the 1980s, the scanning electron microscope made atoms visible for the first time and even enabled scientists to reposition them. A new branch of research came into existence: nanotechnology.

It works on the principle of reducing the number of atoms per particle. An atom on such a nanoparticle has fewer neighbouring atoms than usual — the quality of the surface is thus changed and can be used in a new way.

This opens up possibilities otherwise familiar to us only from science fiction novels. Car paintwork that repairs scratches itself. Scratch-free window panes that control the passage of light, or clothes that are resistant to stains — these are just some of the developments to be expected in the future.

Undreamt-of possibilities

The "lotus effect", which causes water and dirt adhering to it simply to pearl off, has already become reality through nanotechnology. Façade paints, coated sanitary ceramics and glass lenses, as well as nanopaints for cars, function on the principle of plants with the self-cleaning effect.

But that is just the beginning. Researchers are forecasting undreamt-of possibilities for medicine and technology. In 2030, there will be computers whose performance is a million times higher than that of today's machines.

Fuel-cell cars with nanotanks are predicted with a range of up to 8,000 km. "Mini submarines" will navigate their way through our bodies and bring active pharmaceutical ingredients to the seat of diseases.

Nobel prize winner Gerd Binning, for example, is currently working on a silicon comb only a few atoms in size, designed to find cancer cells in the human body and render them harmless.

New technology — New risks

What happens if these nanorobots or "nanobots" get out of control? If they reproduce without stopping and destroy everything around them? Eric Drexler, Head of Foresight Institute in Palo Alto, speaks of "gray goo" — a cloud of out-of-control nanobots that threaten our world.

Winner of the Nobel Prize for Chemistry, Richard Smalley, and most of his colleagues cast doubts on Drexler's horrific vision, because it is not possible to combine every atom or every molecule with another.

A more likely scenario is that nanoparticles may have undesirable effects on people and the environment. Here nanoresearchers and toxicologists are called upon to find answers as soon as possible.

Less hypothetical than the nanobot visions are the activities of material scientists. The first products are already in use, such as highly sensitive hard-disk reading heads coated with a few nanometre-thick layers. And nanoelectronics are already to be found in every new notebook computers.

Like all technologies, nanotechnology will have undesirable side effects. But nobody knows exactly what these will be. The "power of the particles" will spread over many industries and continue to grow. According to a study by Deutsche Bank's Microtechnology Innovation Team, the global market volume of €54bn (2001) will swell to an estimated €1,000bn by the year 2015.

The wide range of development and growth opportunities, however, requires great care with regard to the potential risks inherent in this technology.

Risk management in the nanosector

Munich Re expects a new dimension in claims for personal injury, material damage and financial loss, as well as liability risks in product, environmental and public liability. This "risk of change" derives from the latest scientific findings in connection with the advancing development of materials and microelectronic structures.

The design of new insurance concepts or the calculation of premiums and risk loadings thus does not get us any further at present. We are therefore concentrating for the time being on the development of a set of risk management tools to prevent and minimise losses.

We work together closely with scientists and safety engineers to analyse and evaluate the main problems and issues of nanotechnology, and to bring the results together in a system for product safety and crisis management.

The aim of this risk management is to diminish the probability of losses occurring. Still more important, though, is ongoing dialogue between insurers, operators and consumers of nanotechnology products and processes in order to reduce the risk for all involved as much as possible.