From the past to the future: Forecasts by climate researchers

The third climate status report published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2001) estimates the future development of extreme weather events on the basis of analyses of historical data, computer models, and the plausibility of physical processes in the atmosphere. Using today's climate models, changes in temperature and precipitation during the 21st century can be forecast with a relatively high degree of reliability.

Simulation calculations of how the global increase in temperature will affect the wind climate are limited, however. What is more, climate models do not yet consider smallscale phenomena like thunderstorm cells and tornadoes. This makes it clear, on the one hand, that there is a need for more research into the connection between global warming and the development of the windstorm hazard.

On the other hand, the hazard should not be ignored just because the respective computer models are not yet available. After all, the evidence cited above does indicate that the windstorm hazard is on the increase rather than on the decrease.

As far as tropical cyclones are concerned, on which its examinations have concentrated so far, the IPCC comes to the following assessment: in some regions of the world, the maximum wind speeds of tropical cyclones are likely to increase.