Ernst Rauch

Winds and storms

There is no scientific proof as yet that the wind climate is changing. But there is evidence that the windstorm hazard will probably increase in the future.

The history of human development over the past millennia has been closely linked with man's knowledge of the wind and the seas and with his battle against these elements. Rock drawings dating back to 6000 BC in Nubia — an area between Aswan in Egypt and Karima in Sudan — show boats with bull heads on the bows.

In 4000 BC, trade and the Egyptian pharaohs' endeavours to expand were influenced by how much ships could be used and whether they could take advantage of the wind. 5,000 years later, the Vikings reached the pinnacle of their nautical accomplishments when — led by Leif Eriksson — they made their way to America and discovered Newfoundland.

In the centuries that followed, the wind was the only motor the Europeans had as they forged further and further into the world on the voyages of the great discoverers from Marco Polo to Henry Hudson.

But the wind's influence on our history is not restricted to how its energy can be used. Erosion and destruction are permanently changing the morphology of the earth. The development of the coastal landscapes of the North Sea and Baltic countries is of particular significance in the European region; they have repeatedly been shaped and reshaped by windstorm and storm surge events — with catastrophic effects, since these areas were settled in very early times.

The most catastrophic storm surge on the German North Sea coast was the second Marcellus Flood of 16 January 1362. The chronicles of this catastrophe, also known as the Große Manndränke, speak of 100,000 dead; it was at this time that parts of today's North Frisian islands were formed.

Impact on nature, human life, and economic activity

Severe windstorm events are among the dominant natural hazards in other parts of the world too. Since the end of the 19th century, windstorms in the United States have been the most significant natural catastrophes in terms of fatalities and property damage.

On 8 September 1900, the city of Galveston on the Gulf of Mexico was hit by a hurricane and a storm surge that literally razed it to the ground. This catastrophe claimed the lives of 6,000-8,000 people — more than twice as many as the San Francisco earthquake of 1906.

For the insurance industry too, it was a hurricane in the United States that set a record which has not been surpassed by any other natural hazard event since then (as at October 2004): on 24 August 1992, Andrew destroyed property in southern Florida amounting to some US$30bn; for which the insurance industry had to pay US$17bn.

From the underwriting point of view, the windstorm hazard may be summarised as follows: the frequency of the loss events, the total area of the regions affected, and the losses to be carried by the insurance industry make windstorm the most significant natural hazard worldwide.