Summary

Flood events appear to be increasing at a growing pace throughout the world — and especially in Europe. There is little doubt that this is partly due to the influence of a changing climate.

There is no denying that the losses generated by floods have exploded in recent decades. This is primarily due to two factors: trends in the settlement of areas near bodies of water and the accumulation of sensitive values in those areas, modifications of the landscape (river training works, loss of natural flood plains, deforestation, changes in agricultural land use, compacted soil and impervious surfaces, etc.) and a lack of risk awareness (partially on account of the excessive trust in flood control measures).

Even if our own human activity is partly responsible for many catastrophes, we must appreciate that the errors we make are not all to blame. We simply have to get accustomed to living with extreme — and even catastrophic — natural events.

It is important that we come to terms with the fact and refrain from placing our hopes on — or our trust in — these kinds of events being controllable by technological or other means.

There will always be a residual risk. The crucial factor is to make an appropriate response to this residual risk. Flood prevention may include the following measures: improving structural flood control (usually the first thing to be called for following catastrophes), enhancing the organisational response to events (which is often very inadequate but which is only possible to a limited degree anyway), and sharing the risk with others (e.g. with an insurer, whose services have to be paid for, however).

The most important thing is to be optimally prepared to deal with catastrophe situations. This includes, above all, early-warning systems and an operable alarm plan.

Therefore, if we take the correct action, we can make an existing risk bearable even if we cannot make it controllable. After all, a catastrophe situation should be regarded as the net result of the largely negative effects of extreme natural events and the largely positive response to these events.

Catastrophes are not only products of chance but also the outcome of interaction between political, financial, social, technical, and natural circumstances. Effective safeguards are both achievable and indispensable, but they will never provide complete protection. The decisive point is the awareness that nature can always come up with events against which no human means can prevail. As Aristotle (384—322 BC) said, "It is probable that the improbable will happen."