When crowds get out of control

Despite increasing security measures, the risk of a mass panic can never be ruled out entirely at a big event. Only through consistent risk management can hazards be identified, analysed and minimised at an early stage.

At least 70 people were killed in a mass panic outside a stadium in Manila on 2 February 2006. Many of the victims were older women who — like 30,000 other spectators — simply wanted to see the live transmission of a big television show.

There is a long list of catastrophes like that in the Philippines recently: since 1945, over 1,500 people have been killed in football stadiums due to incidences of panic. The number of dead and injured has fallen constantly over the years, whereas the number of loss events remains on the increase. The causes for mass panic at big events — whether open air or indoors — are many. Catastrophes can occur before, during and even after an event.

Munich Re's Centre of Competence for Casualty Risk Consulting has been dealing with this topic for many years and offers comprehensive consultancy services for the risk management of big international events via Münchener Ecoconsult GmbH (a member of the Munich Re Group).

Mass panic — A matter of seconds

1985: the fire disaster in Bradford City's antiquated football stadium. The fact that the wooden stand had caught fire was not taken seriously initially. Seconds later, however, the fans were terror-stricken.

A single individual panicking is sufficient to trigger a chain reaction. On average, this takes a mere eight seconds: hundreds of visitors surge to the exit. They jam themselves into a semicircle in front of the narrow gate to freedom. The fear-driven panic leads to congestion. Everything comes to a standstill. In situations like this, several tonnes of pressure can be exerted on the bodies of those trapped in the crowd, a load the human anatomy cannot normally withstand for long.

Only well-coordinated structural, organisational and communication measures can lower the probability of loss occurrence and reduce the resulting damage caused by a mass panic. The differing reactions of panicked individuals, however, should not be forgotten.

Behaviour of highly diversified group difficult to predict

In addition, a stadium will normally contain a highly diversified group of children, adults of different ages, different characters, different mentalities and nationalities, who can all react in very different ways.

The fascination of big events lies in their emotional character. If the mood is positive, there is hardly anything to fear. However, if the mood changes for any reason, the unpredictable reactions of the spectators are probably the biggest challenge for the organiser.