Scenario 3

Pharmaceutics and life insurance

In parallel with the advances in genome research, the area of pharmacy has also undergone a revolution. On the one hand, the growing molecular understanding of disease mechanisms implies not only the further optimisation of conventional therapies but also the development of innovative medicines with completely novel principles of action.

This may be possible, for example, through innovative use of rational drug design (in which the active substance can be tailor-made by computer to fit the composition and structure of the target molecule, i.e. the drug target) with combinational chemistry methods. Fitting like a key in a lock, new products could act in the body and narrow the broad spectrum of human diseases that remain incurable at present.

As with preventive medicine that takes the individual's genotype (the genetic make-up of a person) into account, individualisation of pharmacology (pharmacogenetics) could be achieved in this way. Side effects could be markedly reduced overall. Medicines have previously been developed mainly for the "average person", leading to numerous individually different reactions (drug intolerance) in the general population.

Genome research has now identified over 45 different genes that influence the metabolism of medicines. Thanks to this and future knowledge, drug development can proceed in a more targeted manner and be more finely tuned to the individual. The licensing process for new medicines could also change.

In all, it can be expected that the course of chronic diseases will be beneficially and durably influenced by these pharmacological innovations. The continuous trend over the last century to increasingly longer life expectancy should continue because of this and perhaps intensify even more, i.e. the mortality rate will fall.

How fast these scenarios will actually become reality depends mainly on the tempo of technological innovation, on the scientific evolution of genome research and on acceptance by the public. In the end, no one can say precisely when and how strongly this wave of new technology will affect our society. It can only be said that it will come and will open up many new possibilities in the diagnosis, prevention and treatment of diseases.