ANJAPRO

Are your loss reserves large enough or perhaps even unnecessarily large? How profitable are your liability insurance portfolios? One thing is certain: you need to know the answers to these questions in order to achieve sustained profitability. That is why we are offering you a new version of ANJAPRO, an easy-to-use analytical tool that has proved itself in years of actual practice.

ANJAPRO offers you these advantages:

ANJAPRO stands for "Anfalljahrprognose" (the German term for "accident-year prognosis"). As the name suggests, its purpose is to make an ultimate-loss prognosis for a given accident year based on a run-off triangle of paid or incurred losses. In preparing a prognosis, you can choose between the multiplicative method (chain ladder method) and the additive method. Both methods yield both an ultimate-loss estimate and a measure of the uncertainty entailed in each accident-year prognosis. The algorithms used in the tool are based largely on methods developed by Munich Re experts.

The projected losses are the point of departure for running statistical checks on existing reserves and prognosticating the profitability of individual accident years. In making these projections, ANJAPRO also takes into account the probable interest income resulting from the specified payout pattern. ANJAPRO also offers you the option of simulating a fictitious accident year.

New features in Version 2

ANJAPRO has proved its value in practice since 1996. To further optimise the tool to your needs, Munich Re has implemented many suggestions from clients and integrated the new functions in Version 2:

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  Accident-year prognoses can now be generated from either paid-loss or incurred-loss data.
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  Users have significantly enhanced options for customising their prognoses.
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  ANJAPRO now lets you enter a tail factor or tail increment ratio for prognoses that extend beyond the last known development year.
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  The newly designed user interface and numerous graph and diagram options make the new version even more user-friendly than before.
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  All data and calculation results can be output as Excel files for easy further processing.
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  Convenient printing routines have been added for all tables and graphics.
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  A detailed user guide, online help and in-depth documentation of the mathematical methods used further facilitate your work with ANJAPRO.